COVID-19 activity continues to slow as vaccine draws near

COVID-19 activity continues to slow down in Iowa as public health officials cross their fingers that Thanksgiving gatherings may not have had the impact anticipated.

As of Sunday, December 14, there have been 256,727 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, increasing the 244,689 total from the week prior by 12,038 cases. This reduction in new cases from the previous week continues in a positive trend, indicating that the spread of the virus is slowing.

Now two weeks out from Thanksgiving, it appears that the holiday did not result in a second surge following November's record setting outbreak.

"However, it's critical that these trends continue throughout this month and we continue to reduce the number even further," said Reynolds on Wednesday, December 9. "Our ultimate goal is to get virus activity to a level we can manage over the next few months."

The state no longer reports the total number of cases by age groups, but does break down the positive cases over the last seven and 14 days. In the last two weeks, 6% of the new cases have been among the elderly (age 80+), 17% among older adults (60-79); 28% among middle aged adults (40-59); 26% among young adults (18-39); and 13% among children.

With 160,836 cases considered recovered, that leaves roughly 66,296 Iowans currently known to be fighting the disease. With a reduction of roughly 15,000 active cases over the last week, this also shows a welcome trend of slowing virus activity in the state.

Cases requiring hospitalization also continue to drop, with 756 patients hospitalized as of Sunday, including 160 in an ICU. As the numbers continue to go down, the state is approaching hospitalization levels that haven't been seen since early November.

COVID-19 testing continues to roll-on across the state. In total, 2,731,840 tests have been taken on 1,284,330 individuals since the pandemic began, including 2,055,041 PCR tests and 676,799 antigen tests. In the last week the state has processed 72,399 PCR tests and 69,157 antigen tests.

The two-week positivity rate currently sits at 10.3%, a reduction from last week's 11.4% rate.

In addition, 80,524 Iowans have undergone serology testing for coronavirus antibodies, which would indicate that they have had the virus. Of that number, 6,275, about 8%, have tested positive for antibodies.

Last week the state changed a new way of documenting the number of COVID-19 deaths, which now accepts clinical diagnoses from doctors and those who tested positive via antigen testing, rather than just PCR tests. This new methodology has resulted in a retroactive spike in cases and while ultimately will be more accurate in the long run also means that new deaths may see up to a week of lag time before being recorded.

As of Sunday, the current death count in the state is at 3,213 people.

In total, approximately 1,841 elderly (57.3%); 1,131 older adults (35.21%), 205 middle aged adults (6.38%), 34 young adults (1.06%), and at least one child (.06%) have died from the virus since the pandemic began.

Of the new deaths, only seven have been attributed to outbreaks in long term care facilities, bringing the number of deaths in these facilities to 1,132.

The number of long term care facilities with outbreaks went up again this week, with five outbreaks bringing the total to 144 facilities consisting of 5,855 positive individuals with 2,756 considered recovered.

While most COVID-19 metrics continue in a positive direction, Governor Reynolds urges people to continue to abide by social distancing recommendations for a while longer as the state prepares for its first wave of vaccine distribution.

Anticipating approval of two vaccines, hospitals that will be receiving the first shipments have been notified and are preparing to distribute the vaccine among healthcare workers. Meanwhile, long term care facilities will be partnering with three pharmacy chains to distribute the vaccine among their staff and residents.

"Pending vaccine approval, we expect to begin vaccinations in long term care facilities as early as December 28," said Reynolds.